“How likely am I to be approved?” or “But I heard everyone gets denied their first time?” Every single case is unique and has its own strengths and challenges at every level of the disability decision process (application, reconsideration, Administrative Law Judge (ALJ), Appeals Council, District Court). That said, there is something to be said for the law of averages. The Social Security Administration’s Office of Decision Support and Strategic Information recently prepared this chart, showing the likelihood of a claim being allowed (claimant found disabled) or denied (found not disabled) at each level of the process for Fiscal Year 2023. The numbers generally held the same from prior years, with the exception being that the allowance rate at the ALJ level decreased by 6%. In other words, 6% more people were denied on average at the ALJ level in 2023 than in previous years. Also important in reading this chart, is to note that “remand” at the Appeals Council (13%) and District Court (61%) level appear slightly higher than in prior years. For reference, a remand is where that higher court found error in the ALJ’s findings and sent it back to the ALJ to correct the error, which could lead to an allowance, but an allowance is not necessarily required by the higher court, such that the claim could be denied again.
